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DECEMBER 17,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:04 P.M. ET: 

ANOTHER VICTORY – In the last House race to be decided, this one by recount, Republicans picked up another victory.  From the Washington Post:   "Republicans clinched their 247th U.S. House seat on Wednesday when GOP challenger Martha McSally officially unseated Rep. Ron Barber (D-Ariz.), bringing to an end the final unresolved congressional election of the midterms and handing the GOP its largest majority in the chamber since the Great Depression.  McSally's narrow win, which came after a recount, means that House Republicans will begin the 114th Congress with a 247-188 advantage over Democrats. It is the largest GOP majority since Republicans claimed 270 seats in the 1928 election."   McSally, a graduate of the Air Force Academy, was the first woman in American history to fly a combat aircraft into enemy territory.  She's likely to become a Republican star. 

DISGRACEFUL – President Obama denounced the slaughter in Pakistan that took the lives of 132 children, but conspicuously did not name the Taliban as the group that carried out the attack.  Maybe no one told him, or he was about to proclaim "Be nice to the Taliban" week.  We are now leaving Afghanistan, and it's likely the Taliban there will carry out massive attacks as well to prove its power.  Obama will blame Bush.

SURRENDER – The decision by SONY to pull its movie, "The Interview," after hackers threatened a 9-11 style attack on theaters, is a complete capitulation and a serious blow to free speech.  It potentially can give cyber-terrorists control over what Americans can see or not see.  Fortunately, the cowardly decision is being almost universally denounced.  Actor Rob Lowe tweeted, "Hollywood has done Neville Chamberlain proud today."  The president of the United States has had nothing to say, busy as he is appeasing the Castro regime in Cuba.  One capitulation at a time, please.

CUBA – We are still absorbing the news of President Obama's "opening" to Cuba, which will result in full diplomatic relations and the establishment of our embassy in Havana.  The left is rejoicing, but so are businessmen who see profit, and don't care about the people of Cuba, who haven't gotten a thing out of Obama's concession.  As Senator Marco Rubio of Florida said, this won't do a thing for Cuban freedom, but it will secure the power of the Castro family.  You would have thought that a policy change this great would have prompted some discussion with the American people, and certainly with Congress.  Like immigration "reform," Obama sprung this on Americans after an election, not giving our people a chance to express their own view.  It's typical of a man who admires dictatorships more than democracies.  There is now chilling speculation that Obama will do the same thing with Iran – establish full relations, throwing many of our Mideast allies, including Israel, under the bus. 

December 17, 2014       Permalink

SIGN OF THE FUTURE? – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  And possible trouble for Chris Christie, if he decides to run for president.   From NorthJersey.com: 

The German luxury automaker Mercedes-Benz is looking to move its 1,000-employee North American headquarters from Montvale to Atlanta, several sources said Tuesday.

The Atlanta Business Chronicle first reported on Tuesday that Mercedes-Benz USA is considering the move. A company spokesman declined to comment on the report, but several sources told The Record that Mercedes-Benz was indeed considering leaving Bergen County. One source within the company told The Record that an announcement on a move may come in January, at a company reception.

“As a matter of policy, the company does not comment on rumors or speculation,” said Mercedes-Benz spokesman Rob Moran.

If the reports are accurate, Mercedes-Benz would be the latest in a string of major companies to move their corporate headquarters from Bergen County to the South. The car-rental company Hertz moved from Park Ridge to south Florida, and the BubbleWrap maker Sealed Air is moving from Elmwood Park to Charlotte, N.C., both with the help of tax incentives from those states.

Montvale would be losing its second-largest private employer, behind the accounting giant KPMG, according to the Bergen County Economic Development Corp. Mercedes-Benz is among the top 10 corporate employers in the county and paid $916,700 in local taxes on its properties this year, according to the borough’s website.

COMMENT:  When a high-visibility firm leaves, throwing people out of work, and reducing the tax base, there are political implications.  When it's one of a number who have left, the political implications are magnified.  When the firm is famous, and prestigious, it makes matters worse.

And why shouldn't they leave?  There are greater opportunities in more dynamic American states.  The taxes are lower.  The cost of living for employees is much lower.

Next door to New Jersey, New York has become the largest out-migration state in the Union.  More people leave New York than any other state. 

And yet, the politicians haven't taken the hints.  These are liberal states with liberal, high-tax policies.  Their future is bleak unless they change, but they won't change.  There are too many interests involved, including the ultra-powerful public-service unions.  There are no Scott Walkers on the horizon. 

Scott Walker saved Wisconsin.  Who will save the old states of the northeast?

December 17, 2014       Permalink

APPALLING – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:   This is Obama's America in 2014.  From CNS: 

The Census Bureau reported in a study released this week that 65 percent of American children lived in households taking aid from one or more federal program as of the fall of 2011.

"Almost two-thirds (65 percent) of children," said the Census Bureau, "lived in households that participated in at least one or more of the following government aid programs: Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), Medicaid, and the National School Lunch Program."

How to be dependent on government is now one of the earliest life lessons America is teaching nearly a supermajority of children.

The percentage of children living in households participating in TANF, food stamps, WIC, Medicaid or the National School Lunch Program has been on the rise.

In 2003, according to the Census Bureau, there were a total of 72,658,000 children 17 and under in the United States, and 40,337,000 of these children — or 56 percent — lived in households receiving aid from one of more of these programs.

That included 30,023,000 children in the National School Lunch Program, 18,175,000 in households on Medicaid, 8,287,000 in households on food stamps, 4,808,000 in households on WIC, and 2,347,000 in households on TANF.

By 2011, there were 74,294,000 children 17 and under and 47,939,000 of these children — or 65 percent — lived in households receiving aid from one or more of these programs.

COMMENT:  Not exactly the trend you want, not exactly a sign of the recovering economy that the Obamans brag about.  And, of course, families dependent on government help will vote for the candidates who will continue and expand that help.  It's human nature.

Thus do free nations go socialist over time.

December 17, 2014       Permalink

RUSSIA IN TROUBLE – AT 8:01 A.M. ET:  We mentioned this on "Short Takes" last night.  In part because of the steep decline in oil prices, Russia's economy is in serious trouble.  The implications are global.  From Britain's Telegraph:   

Russia has lost control of its economy and may be forced to impose Soviet-style exchange controls after "shock and awe" action by the central bank failed to stem the collapse of the rouble.

“The situation is critical,” said the central bank’s vice-chairman, Sergei Shvetsov. “What is happening is a nightmare that we could not even have imagined a year ago."

The currency crashed to 100 against the euro in the biggest one-day drop since the default crisis in 1998 as capital flight gathered pace, despite a drastic rise in interest rates to 17pc intended to crush speculators and show resolve.

Yields on two-year Russian bonds spiralled to 15.36pc, while credit default swaps are pricing in a one-third chance of a sovereign default. The shares of Russia’s biggest lender, Sberbank, fell 18pc.
Neil Shearing, from Capital Economics, said the spectacular failure of the rate shock may bring matters to a head. “If a rise of 650 basis points won’t do the job, we are near the end. That means stringent capital controls,” he said.

Michal Dybula, from BNP Paribas, said the rouble plunges risk setting off a systemic bank run. “A large-scale run on deposits, once under way, would make capital controls pretty much unavoidable,” he said, adding that the authorities may start by forcing state-controlled companies to sell foreign assets and repatriate funds.

In Washington, the White House said it had no intention of easing pressure on Russia to halt the freefall. "It is president Vladimir Putin's decision to make. The aim is to sharpen the choice that he faces," it said.

COMMENT:  One fear is that, if Russia gets into serious trouble economically, Putin may do what other dictatorial leaders have done under those circumstances.  He may go to war, rallying the people around the flag.  Ukraine is the place to watch.

Interesting year coming up, ay?

December 17, 2014       Permalink

THE RACE, ALREADY – AT 7:51 A.M. ET:  The polling for 2016 is well underway.   From Fox:

Former Massachusetts Gov. and 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney leads the growing pack for the GOP presidential nomination, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains far ahead among Democrats.

That’s according to a Fox News poll released Tuesday.

Romney dominates the field for the 2016 Republican nomination. He comes in at 19 percent among self-identified Republicans, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 10 percent. No other candidates garner double-digit backing.

I suspect this is more a question of name recognition than anything else.  And those numbers aren't high enough to be significant anyway.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul each receive eight percent. Next, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker captures seven percent, followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan each at six percent and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at five percent.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (four percent), Ohio Gov. John Kasich (two percent), Texas Gov. Rick Perry (two percent), Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (one percent) and former Penn. Sen. Rick Santorum (one percent) each receive the backing of less than five percent of Republicans.

This is the first time that Fox News has included Romney, Huckabee and Carson in its 2016 national GOP primary ballot test.

"Rumors about Romney running again are likely to get a further boost with these numbers," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson.

Shaw adds, "With Romney and Bush running one and two among GOPers, you wonder if John McCain or Bob Dole want to get in on the action."

And...

On the Democratic side, Clinton is still 50 points ahead of her nearest rival -- even though support for her is down somewhat from previous polls. Clinton receives the backing of 62 percent of self-identified Democrats. That’s down from 64 percent in July and a high of 69 percent in April.

Elizabeth Warren is at 12 percent, and Joe Biden is at 10 percent.  The movement in numbers is not that dramatic, but Clinton is declining and Warren is advancing. 

December 17,  2014     Permalink

DECEMBER 16,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:20 P.M. ET: 

MAJOR TOLERANCE NEWS – From AP:  "A Saudi woman arrested while attending a soccer game in the kingdom claims she did not know women were prohibited from going to the male-only stadiums, the state-linked Okaz newspaper reported on Monday.   Saudi Arabia enforces a strict segregation of the sexes and has no designated areas for women at soccer stadiums, though authorities have announced plans for 'family' areas from where women can watch matches.  However, there have been exceptions for foreign women. In October, an Australian female supporter of Western Sydney Wanderers Football Club was permitted to attend a match at Riyadh’s main stadium. And in January, a group of American women traveling with members of US Congress watched a local soccer club match, also in Riyadh.  The arrested woman, whose name has not been made public, said she bought a ticket online without any problems and attended Friday night’s game in the Red Sea city of Jiddah’s new al-Jawhara stadium."  I wonder if she'll get any support from international "women's" groups, who have shown a strange indifference to the rights of Muslim women.

HILLARY'S HEADACHES – And they seem to be building up.  From the Washington Post:  "In June, Hillary Rodham Clinton appeared on the cover of People magazine for the first time in more than a decade. Real people, not the magazine, talked about what the article might mean for 2016. They talked about whether Clinton was using a walker (she wasn't). They talked about people talking about whether Clinton was using a walker (She still wasn't).  What they didn't do was buy the magazine. According to a report from AdWeek on Monday, the June 16 issue of People featuring the former first lady and senator was the magazine's worst selling of 2014 with 503,890 copies sold."  Hillary ain't hot no more.  There's just no getting around it.

WHEN YOU'VE LOST APPLE... – From Fox Business:  "Apple (AAPL) confirmed on Tuesday that it has taken down its online store in Russia due to extreme fluctuations in the value of the ruble.  It said in a statement that it is currently reviewing pricing."  The Russian economy has become extremely unstable because of the plunge in the price of oil.  This could spell serious trouble for Putin, who was riding high until American oil producers started showing some real muscle.  It is an important story worth following.  Our good fortune might be Russia's undoing.  Without an online Apple Store, what could a country be?  My heart breaks.

GREAT MOMENTS IN EDUCATION – From Gateway Pundit:  "Twenty-nine year-old English professor and poet, Eric Linsker, from City University of New York was arrested at 4 AM on Sunday morning in connection with the assault on two police officers.   Linsker was charged with second degree assault and starting a riot. Police also found pot on Linsker when he was arrested.   The published poet also had a backpack full of hammers but his lawyer said there is no way to prove that the bag belonged to Linsker."  Of course not.  Professor often carry bags of hammers as a courtesy for their students.  I'd love to know what City University will do to this guy, if he's found guilty.  It's a pretty left-wing place, so I'm assuming they'll figure out a way to keep him on.

December 16,  2014     Permalink

BULLETIN – JEB MAKING HIS MOVE – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  Jeb Bush has just issued a major statement on his political future.  From the Washington Times:   

Jeb Bush is exploring a 2016 presidential bid.

The former Florida governor said in a post on Facebook Tuesday that over the Thanksgiving holiday there was a lot of discussion about the future of the nation.

"As a result of these conversations and thoughtful consideration of the kind of strong leadership I think America needs, I have decided to actively explore the possibility of running for president of the United States,” Mr. Bush said.

Mr. Bush said he plans to establish a Leader PAC next month to “help me facilitate conversations with citizens across America to discuss the most critical challenges facing our exceptional nation.”

“The PAC’s purpose will be to support leaders, ideas and policies that will expand opportunity and prosperity for all Americans,” he said.

Mr. Bush’s shadow has lingered over the 2016 discussion for months, and many GOP insiders have raised questions about whether his support for the K-12 Common Core education standards and immigration reform that includes a path to legalization could put him at odds with the grassroots conservatives, who play a pivotal role in the nomination process.

Still, Mr. Bush leads the nomination races in national polls. He is running fourth in Iowa, which traditionally kicks off the nomination race with the caucuses, and is running second in New Hampshire, home to the first-in-the-nation primary.

COMMENT:  Okay, we're listening.  I'm assuming that Jeb wouldn't be making this statement unless he was serious about running.  He is an engaging personality with a fine record as governor of Florida.  His wife is Hispanic, and he speaks fluent Spanish.  He has, though, liabilities.  He is not beloved on the Republican right, which sees him as a moderate.  And the name Bush might conjure notions of a dynasty.  (However, if Hillary is the Dem nominee, she, as the wife of a former president, can hardly use that issue.) 

We must elect a Republican in 2016.  I'm prepared to give each candidate a full hearing.  I think we all should.  Look at the alternative. 

We're going to have a fascinating two years in American politics.

December 16, 2014       Permalink

THE IMPACT OF OBAMA – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  Victor Davis Hanson assesses the result of six years of Barack Obama, after asserting that he is an outlier, the first truly liberal Democratic northern president elected since World War II.  From NRO, our quote of the day: 

A therapeutic foreign policy, adorned by apologies for and contextualization of past American conduct, has turned the Middle East into Somalia and empowered Vladimir Putin, the Chinese apparat, and soon-to-be nuclear Iran. The defense budget will reach record lows, as money still shifts from military deterrence to more social programs and entitlements.

Old allies either are ignored or put under suspicion, while new ones such as Turkey seem to resent the U.S. more deeply the more that they are courted. After Obama, the American idea of a red line, step-over line, or deadline will be comic. The war against terror has been reduced to a war against unnamed individuals who sometimes commit workplace violence or cause manmade disasters. In Obama Farm, waterboarding three confessed terrorists at Guantanamo Bay is a crime against humanity; blowing up 3,000 suspected terrorists and anyone nearby through Predator drone assassinations is the stuff of presidential joking at Washington banquets.

At home, a natural recovery after a deep recession was aborted by massive government borrowing that was wasted on abetting crony capitalists and shoring up collapsing union and pension funds. Before he is through, Obama may well have borrowed more than all previous presidents combined. In the surreal context of the present, slashing defense and raising taxes to reduce trillion-dollar-deficits to half-trillion-dollar deficits — still higher than any other before Obama — are dubbed fiscal progress.

Never has a modern president been so pampered by the press, and never has the press been so disrespected for its obsequiousness. After Obama, what will the press do? Will it investigate some future Republican abuse of executive orders, deplore serial crippling deficits, complain of a government hostile to the media, expose scandals in the IRS or VA, lament the decline of U.S. prestige abroad, tally up “illegal” Predator assassinations, chronicle bombing without congressional approval, talk of a McCarthy-like administration tapping reporters’ communications and computers, whine about an anemic “jobless” recovery, chart how a president deliberately misled the country about health care, amnesty, or dangers in the Middle East? Will it demand that the next presidential candidate release his college transcripts and medical records or details about his associates?

COMMENT:  Brilliantly written, and so true.  The profession of journalism is committing mass suicide.  CNN loses half its audience before it goes on the air.  The American people are clearly upset with the results of six years of Obama, and they expressed their opinions in last month's election.  The question is whether the GOP can run a winning presidential candidate in 2016.  That question is very much open.

December 16, 2014       Permalink 

AMERICANS REACT TO CIA REPORT – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  The American people, who are generally wiser than the politicians and pundits, have reacted with restraint and common sense to the Democratic Senate report on the CIA.  From the Washington Post: 

A new poll from the Pew Research Center is the first to gauge reactions to last week's big CIA report on "enhanced interrogation techniques" -- what agency critics call torture.

And the reaction is pretty muted.

The poll shows people say, by 51-29 percent, than the CIA's methods were justified and 56-28 percent that the information gleaned helped prevent terror attacks.

The word "torture," it should be noted, isn't mentioned in the poll, but it has been associated with much of the coverage of the issue. And the numbers align nicely with polls on the use of torture, which shows that relatively few Americans are concerned about it -- especially when you bring the prospect of combating terrorism into the mix.

That lack of real concern about what the CIA was doing is also reflected in the amount of interest in the story. While newspapers and broadcast news across the country devoted a huge amount of coverage to the Senate intelligence committee report last week, just 23 percent of Americans say they are following the story "very closely," while 50 percent are following it "not too closely" or "not at all." That ranks it behind the Ferguson/Eric Garner protests and stories about the U.S. economy.

And it's not just that people who aren't concerned about torture aren't tuning in. Those who have followed the story the most, in fact, approve of the program 59-34 percent.

Even Democrats are pretty split on the justification for the program. While 37 percent say it was justified, 46 percent say it wasn't. Liberal Democrats disapprove 65-25 percent, but moderate and conservative Democrats approve 48-32 percent.

COMMENT:  That last point is fascinating.  We're hearing more and more about serious splits in the Democratic Party.  Liberal Democrats, remember, are a small part of the American electorate, maybe 20 percent or so.  But they have an outsized voice in Mr. Obama's party.

December 16, 2014       Permalink

HORROR STORY – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:  Just as American troops are leaving Afghanistan, the Taliban engages in a ghastly terror attack in neighboring Pakistan.  I guess that when Obama said the war on terror was winding down, he only meant our side.  From Breitbart: 

At least 126 people, including 84 children have been killed in a Taliban attack on a school in Pakistan and around 122 injured, according to reports.

Officials say at least six armed men stormed the military run school in the city of Peshawar, holding around 500 students and teachers hostage.

Eye witnesses at the site reported the sound of heavy gunfire in the bloodiest insurgent attack in the country for years.

Jamshed Khan, a school bus driver, told reporters, "We were standing outside the school and firing suddenly started and there was chaos everywhere and the screams of children and teachers.”

One student who was rescued from the school told a private television channel, "We were in the examination hall when all of sudden firing started and our teachers told us to silently lay on the floor. We remained on the floor for an hour. There was a lot of gunfire.”

"When the gunfire died down our soldiers came and guided us out.”

Reuters news agency say three explosions have been heard from inside the school compound. Four of the six attackers have been reported killed.

The Army said that troops had surrounded the building and an operation was under way to rescue the remaining children and teachers.

The Chief Minister of Khyver Pakhtunkhwa, the province of which Peshawar is the capital, confirmed the death of 84 children in an interview with local television channels.

"In CMH (Combined Military Hospital) there are around 60 and there are 24 dead in Lady Reading (hospital),” he said.

The Pakistani Prime Minister has called school massacre “A national tragedy” and said he was on his way to Peshawar.

"I can't stay back in Islamabad [Pakistan’s capital]. This is a national tragedy unleashed by savages. These were my kids,” he said in a statement.

"This is my loss. This is the nation's loss. I am leaving for Peshawar now and I will supervise this operation myself.”

This is not the first attack by the Islamist militants in the City. In September 2013 the Taliban attacked a church in Peshawar, killing many worshippers, including children.

There is a long running battle with the Pakistani Taliban who want to topple the government and set up a strict Islamic state as they did in Afghanistan before the invasion of ISAF forces.

COMMENT:  And as they will probably do again once American forces are completely out of Afghanistan.  Field Marshal Obama's exit strategy, announced to our enemies well in advance, is simply encouraging greater arrogance and confidence by the Taliban.  Our efforts in Afghanistan, challenging enough considering the complexity and tribalism of that country, have been seriously weakened by the incumbent president-strategist. 

December 16,  2014     Permalink